Predictions · Cup Grp. C · outside model coverage

Antofagasta

10
Won

Cobresal

The model leans Antofagasta at 50%. Expected goals: Antofagasta 1.82, Cobresal 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%. Antofagasta won 3 of their last 6; Cobresal won 1 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Antofagasta53%1.88
XDraw25%3.97
2Cobresal22%4.64

Pick: Antofagasta. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.82 – 1.09
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.556%44%
3.533%67%
Both teams to scoreYes56%No44%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.8%
  • 109.9%
  • 219.8%
  • 209.0%
  • 016.0%
  • 316.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Antofagasta −0.5
Antofagasta lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.531%69%
-131%24%46%
-0.554%46%
054%23%23%
+0.577%23%
+177%14%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.