Predictions · Chile Primera B · outside model coverage

Deportes Iquique

11
Lost

Antofagasta

The model leans Antofagasta at 37%. Expected goals: Deportes Iquique 1.26, Antofagasta 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Deportes Iquique won 3 of their last 6; Antofagasta won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Deportes Iquique32%3.13
XDraw28%3.55
2Antofagasta40%2.51

Pick: Antofagasta. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.26 – 1.44
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.2%
  • 019.7%
  • 128.8%
  • 108.5%
  • 217.7%
  • 026.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Deportes Iquique 0
Deportes Iquique lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%19%67%
-0.533%67%
033%26%41%
+0.559%41%
+159%22%20%
+1.580%20%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.