Predictions · Chile Primera · outside model coverage

Universidad de Chile

20
Won

O'Higgins

The model leans Universidad de Chile at 51%. Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 1.65, O'Higgins 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%. Universidad de Chile won 3 of their last 5; O'Higgins won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Universidad de Chile56%1.78
XDraw27%3.75
2O'Higgins17%5.86

Pick: Universidad de Chile. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.65 – 0.81
LineOverUnder
1.570%30%
2.545%55%
3.523%77%
Both teams to scoreYes45%No55%

Most likely scores

  • 1014.1%
  • 2011.7%
  • 1111.4%
  • 219.4%
  • 008.5%
  • 016.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Universidad de Chile −1
Universidad de Chile lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.532%68%
-132%26%43%
-0.557%43%
057%24%18%
+0.582%18%
+182%13%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.