Deportes Recoleta
O'Higgins
The model leans O'Higgins at 53%. Expected goals: Deportes Recoleta 1.15, O'Higgins 2.18. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%. Deportes Recoleta won 1 of their last 5; O'Higgins won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportes Recoleta | 18% | 5.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.58 | – | – | – |
| 2O'Higgins | 60% | 1.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: O'Higgins. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 2.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–28.6%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–37.1%
- 0–36.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: O'Higgins −1| Deportes Recoleta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 12% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 20% | 61% |
| +0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| +1 | 39% | 23% | 38% |
| +1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.