Deportes Iquique
Deportes Recoleta
The model leans Deportes Iquique at 50%. Expected goals: Deportes Iquique 1.83, Deportes Recoleta 1.24. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Deportes Iquique won 3 of their last 6; Deportes Recoleta won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportes Iquique | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Recoleta | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportes Iquique. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.83 – 1.24| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.5%
- 2–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportes Iquique −0.5| Deportes Iquique line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 23% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.