La Serena
Union La Calera
The model leans La Serena at 39%. Expected goals: La Serena 1.61, Union La Calera 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. La Serena won 1 of their last 6; Union La Calera won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1La Serena | 42% | 2.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Union La Calera | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: La Serena. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.61 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: La Serena 0| La Serena line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 21% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.