Predictions · Cup Grp. E · outside model coverage

Colo Colo

30
Won

Unión Española

The model leans Colo Colo at 68%. Expected goals: Colo Colo 2.54, Unión Española 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Colo Colo won 2 of their last 3; Unión Española won 1 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Colo Colo77%1.30
XDraw16%6.29
2Unión Española7%14.10

Pick: Colo Colo. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.54 – 0.68
LineOverUnder
1.583%17%
2.562%38%
3.540%60%
Both teams to scoreYes45%No55%

Most likely scores

  • 2013.0%
  • 3011.0%
  • 1010.2%
  • 218.8%
  • 317.4%
  • 406.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Colo Colo −2
Colo Colo lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.556%44%
-156%22%22%
-0.578%22%
078%15%8%
+0.592%8%
+192%6%2%
+1.598%2%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.