San Marcos
Deportes Limache
The model leans Deportes Limache at 38%. Expected goals: San Marcos 1.10, Deportes Limache 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. San Marcos won 0 of their last 6; Deportes Limache won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Marcos | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Limache | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportes Limache. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–27.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Marcos 0| San Marcos line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.