Bayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin
The model leans Bayer Leverkusen at 60%. Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.26, Union Berlin 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 6; Union Berlin won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayer Leverkusen | 68% | 1.48 | 1.44 | 65% | +2 |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.00 | 4.75 | 20% | 0 |
| 2Union Berlin | 12% | 8.10 | 6.25 | 15% | −3 |
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.26 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 2–011.0%10.5%
- 2–19.7%11.8%
- 1–09.7%9.1%
- 1–18.6%10.5%
- 3–08.3%9.1%
- 3–17.3%9.1%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayer Leverkusen −1.5| Bayer Leverkusen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 23% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Bayer Leverkusen -1.25 | 51% | 1.95 | 1.95 | 49% | +2 |
| Asian handicap | Union Berlin +1.25 | 49% | 2.05 | 1.90 | 51% | −2 |
| Draw no bet | Bayer Leverkusen | 85% | 1.18 | 1.17 | 81% | +4 |
| Draw no bet | Union Berlin | 15% | 6.48 | 5.00 | 19% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 | 1.57 | 59% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 47% | 2.11 | 2.25 | 41% | +6 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.