Fratria
Marek Dupnitsa
The model leans Fratria at 53%. Expected goals: Fratria 1.63, Marek Dupnitsa 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. Fratria won 4 of their last 6; Marek Dupnitsa won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fratria | 60% | 1.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Marek Dupnitsa | 13% | 7.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fratria. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.63 – 0.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.8%
- 2–013.7%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fratria −1| Fratria line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 24% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.