Fratria
Rilski Sportist
The model leans Fratria at 56%. Expected goals: Fratria 2.96, Rilski Sportist 1.59. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 76%. Fratria won 4 of their last 6; Rilski Sportist won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fratria | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.86 | – | – | – |
| 2Rilski Sportist | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fratria. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.96 – 1.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams to score | Yes76% | No24% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.4%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–25.9%
- 3–25.8%
- 4–15.4%
- 1–15.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fratria −1.5| Fratria line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 19% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 16% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 10% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.