Rilski Sportist
Spartak Pleven
The model leans Rilski Sportist at 53%. Expected goals: Rilski Sportist 2.74, Spartak Pleven 1.64. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 76%. Rilski Sportist won 2 of their last 6; Spartak Pleven won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rilski Sportist | 60% | 1.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Spartak Pleven | 21% | 4.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rilski Sportist. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.74 – 1.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 64% | 36% |
| Both teams to score | Yes75% | No25% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.7%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–26.3%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.6%
- 4–14.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rilski Sportist −1| Rilski Sportist line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 20% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 17% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 12% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.