Beroe
Spartak Pleven
The model leans Beroe at 50%. Expected goals: Beroe 1.39, Spartak Pleven 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%. Beroe won 2 of their last 6; Spartak Pleven won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Beroe | 49% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| 2Spartak Pleven | 21% | 4.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Beroe. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.4%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Beroe −0.5| Beroe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 28% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.