Beroe
Montana
The model leans Beroe at 40%. Expected goals: Beroe 0.98, Montana 0.58. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 71%. Beroe won 2 of their last 6; Montana won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Beroe | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Montana | 20% | 5.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Beroe. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 0.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 80% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 0–021.2%
- 1–020.6%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Beroe −0.5| Beroe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 27% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 35% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 16% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.