Montana
Marek Dupnitsa
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: Montana 0.79, Marek Dupnitsa 0.63. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 73%. Montana won 2 of their last 6; Marek Dupnitsa won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montana | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Marek Dupnitsa | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 0.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 94% |
| Both teams to score | Yes26% | No74% |
Most likely scores
- 0–024.0%
- 1–019.0%
- 0–115.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–24.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Montana 0| Montana line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 24% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 38% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.