Marek Dupnitsa
Dobrudzha Dobrich
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: Marek Dupnitsa 0.72, Dobrudzha Dobrich 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 70%. Marek Dupnitsa won 2 of their last 6; Dobrudzha Dobrich won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marek Dupnitsa | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 39% | 2.57 | – | – | – |
| 2Dobrudzha Dobrich | 33% | 3.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.72 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 80% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes28% | No72% |
Most likely scores
- 0–021.8%
- 0–117.6%
- 1–015.6%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–05.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Marek Dupnitsa 0| Marek Dupnitsa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 21% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 36% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 23% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.