Predictions · Second Professional League · outside model coverage

Dobrudzha Dobrich

51
Won

Pirin Blagoevgrad

The model leans Dobrudzha Dobrich at 50%. Expected goals: Dobrudzha Dobrich 1.30, Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 62%. Dobrudzha Dobrich won 1 of their last 6; Pirin Blagoevgrad won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Dobrudzha Dobrich49%2.03
XDraw31%3.18
2Pirin Blagoevgrad19%5.19

Pick: Dobrudzha Dobrich. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.30 – 0.71
LineOverUnder
1.560%40%
2.533%67%
3.515%85%
Both teams to scoreYes37%No63%

Most likely scores

  • 1017.4%
  • 0013.4%
  • 1112.4%
  • 2011.3%
  • 019.5%
  • 218.0%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Dobrudzha Dobrich −0.5
Dobrudzha Dobrich lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%27%49%
-0.551%49%
051%29%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%15%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.