Pirin Blagoevgrad
FC Chernomorets Burgas
The model leans FC Chernomorets Burgas at 36%. Expected goals: Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.98, FC Chernomorets Burgas 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%. Pirin Blagoevgrad won 0 of their last 6; FC Chernomorets Burgas won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pirin Blagoevgrad | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.08 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Chernomorets Burgas | 38% | 2.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Chernomorets Burgas. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pirin Blagoevgrad 0| Pirin Blagoevgrad line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 20% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.