Hebar
FC Chernomorets Burgas
The model leans FC Chernomorets Burgas at 38%. Expected goals: Hebar 1.12, FC Chernomorets Burgas 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. Hebar won 2 of their last 6; FC Chernomorets Burgas won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hebar | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Chernomorets Burgas | 41% | 2.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Chernomorets Burgas. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.4%
- 0–27.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hebar 0| Hebar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.