Predictions · Second Professional League · outside model coverage

Ludogorets Razgrad II

11
Lost

Hebar

The model leans Ludogorets Razgrad II at 50%. Expected goals: Ludogorets Razgrad II 1.80, Hebar 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Ludogorets Razgrad II won 1 of their last 6; Hebar won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Ludogorets Razgrad II52%1.93
XDraw25%3.95
2Hebar23%4.35

Pick: Ludogorets Razgrad II. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.80 – 1.14
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.556%44%
3.534%66%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.9%
  • 219.8%
  • 109.5%
  • 208.6%
  • 126.2%
  • 016.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Ludogorets Razgrad II −0.5
Ludogorets Razgrad II lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%23%47%
-0.553%47%
053%23%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%15%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.