Ludogorets Razgrad II
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
The model leans Ludogorets Razgrad II at 55%. Expected goals: Ludogorets Razgrad II 2.13, Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%. Ludogorets Razgrad II won 1 of their last 6; Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ludogorets Razgrad II | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 15% | 6.68 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ludogorets Razgrad II. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.13 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–07.4%
- 3–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ludogorets Razgrad II −1| Ludogorets Razgrad II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 24% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.