Predictions · Second Professional League · outside model coverage

FC Chernomorets Burgas

10
Won

Ludogorets Razgrad II

The model leans FC Chernomorets Burgas at 41%. Expected goals: FC Chernomorets Burgas 1.37, Ludogorets Razgrad II 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. FC Chernomorets Burgas won 3 of their last 6; Ludogorets Razgrad II won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FC Chernomorets Burgas45%2.24
XDraw30%3.33
2Ludogorets Razgrad II25%3.96

Pick: FC Chernomorets Burgas. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.37 – 0.97
LineOverUnder
1.568%32%
2.541%59%
3.521%79%
Both teams to scoreYes46%No54%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.3%
  • 1112.8%
  • 009.7%
  • 019.4%
  • 209.1%
  • 218.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FC Chernomorets Burgas −0.5
FC Chernomorets Burgas lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%24%54%
-0.546%54%
046%27%27%
+0.573%27%
+173%17%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.