FC Chernomorets Burgas
Ludogorets Razgrad II
The model leans FC Chernomorets Burgas at 41%. Expected goals: FC Chernomorets Burgas 1.37, Ludogorets Razgrad II 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. FC Chernomorets Burgas won 3 of their last 6; Ludogorets Razgrad II won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Chernomorets Burgas | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| 2Ludogorets Razgrad II | 25% | 3.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Chernomorets Burgas. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.3%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.7%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Chernomorets Burgas −0.5| FC Chernomorets Burgas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.