Beroe
Ludogorets Razgrad II
The model leans Beroe at 42%. Expected goals: Beroe 1.26, Ludogorets Razgrad II 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%. Beroe won 2 of their last 6; Ludogorets Razgrad II won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Beroe | 45% | 2.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Ludogorets Razgrad II | 23% | 4.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Beroe. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–18.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Beroe −0.5| Beroe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 29% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 17% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.