Etar
Beroe
The model leans Beroe at 31%. Expected goals: Etar 1.01, Beroe 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%. Etar won 2 of their last 6; Beroe won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Etar | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Beroe | 36% | 2.78 | – | – | – |
Pick: Beroe. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 1.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–012.1%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Etar 0| Etar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 20% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.