Etar
Marek Dupnitsa
The model leans Etar at 38%. Expected goals: Etar 1.13, Marek Dupnitsa 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Etar won 2 of their last 6; Marek Dupnitsa won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Etar | 40% | 2.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Marek Dupnitsa | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Etar. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.2%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Etar 0| Etar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 24% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.