Sportist Svoge
Marek Dupnitsa
The model leans Marek Dupnitsa at 36%. Expected goals: Sportist Svoge 0.73, Marek Dupnitsa 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 67%. Sportist Svoge won 1 of their last 6; Marek Dupnitsa won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sportist Svoge | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Marek Dupnitsa | 38% | 2.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Marek Dupnitsa. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.73 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.5%
- 0–117.6%
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sportist Svoge 0| Sportist Svoge line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 19% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 34% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 25% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.