Etar
Rilski Sportist
The model leans Rilski Sportist at 38%. Expected goals: Etar 2.06, Rilski Sportist 2.16. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 78%. Etar won 2 of their last 6; Rilski Sportist won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Etar | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Rilski Sportist | 41% | 2.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rilski Sportist. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.06 – 2.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 61% | 39% |
| Both teams to score | Yes77% | No23% |
Most likely scores
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–35.3%
- 1–35.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Etar 0| Etar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 17% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 20% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 18% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.