Rilski Sportist
Montana
The model leans Rilski Sportist at 50%. Expected goals: Rilski Sportist 1.92, Montana 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. Rilski Sportist won 2 of their last 6; Montana won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rilski Sportist | 54% | 1.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Montana | 22% | 4.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rilski Sportist. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.92 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rilski Sportist −0.5| Rilski Sportist line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.