Montana
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
The model leans Montana at 50%. Expected goals: Montana 1.48, Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%. Montana won 2 of their last 6; Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montana | 54% | 1.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 17% | 5.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Montana. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.1%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Montana −0.5| Montana line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.