Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Dobrudzha Dobrich
The model leans Dobrudzha Dobrich at 50%. Expected goals: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 0.84, Dobrudzha Dobrich 1.51. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%. Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa won 3 of their last 6; Dobrudzha Dobrich won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 20% | 5.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Dobrudzha Dobrich | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dobrudzha Dobrich. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.84 – 1.51| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.5%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–210.9%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dobrudzha Dobrich −0.5| Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 14% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.