Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Fratria
The model leans Fratria at 62%. Expected goals: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 0.92, Fratria 2.48. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 56%. Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa won 3 of their last 6; Fratria won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 11% | 8.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.52 | – | – | – |
| 2Fratria | 71% | 1.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fratria. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 2.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–38.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fratria −1.5| Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 8% | 88% |
| -0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| 0 | 12% | 17% | 71% |
| +0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| +1 | 29% | 22% | 49% |
| +1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.