Predictions · Second Professional League · outside model coverage

Vihren Sandanski

22
Lost

Fratria

The model leans Vihren Sandanski at 39%. Expected goals: Vihren Sandanski 1.62, Fratria 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. Vihren Sandanski won 4 of their last 6; Fratria won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vihren Sandanski42%2.38
XDraw26%3.81
2Fratria32%3.15

Pick: Vihren Sandanski. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.62 – 1.39
LineOverUnder
1.580%20%
2.558%42%
3.536%64%
Both teams to scoreYes60%No40%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.1%
  • 219.0%
  • 108.0%
  • 127.7%
  • 016.8%
  • 206.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vihren Sandanski 0
Vihren Sandanski lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%21%57%
-0.543%57%
043%24%33%
+0.567%33%
+167%18%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.