Spartak Pleven
Vihren Sandanski
The model leans Vihren Sandanski at 50%. Expected goals: Spartak Pleven 1.16, Vihren Sandanski 1.86. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. Spartak Pleven won 1 of their last 6; Vihren Sandanski won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spartak Pleven | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Vihren Sandanski | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vihren Sandanski. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–28.4%
- 2–16.1%
- 1–36.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vihren Sandanski −0.5| Spartak Pleven line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 14% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 23% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.