PFC CSKA Sofia II
Spartak Pleven
The model leans PFC CSKA Sofia II at 60%. Expected goals: PFC CSKA Sofia II 2.23, Spartak Pleven 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 55%. PFC CSKA Sofia II won 4 of their last 6; Spartak Pleven won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PFC CSKA Sofia II | 66% | 1.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.86 | – | – | – |
| 2Spartak Pleven | 13% | 7.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: PFC CSKA Sofia II. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.23 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–07.9%
- 3–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PFC CSKA Sofia II −1| PFC CSKA Sofia II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.