Fratria
PFC CSKA Sofia II
The model leans Fratria at 41%. Expected goals: Fratria 1.66, PFC CSKA Sofia II 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Fratria won 4 of their last 6; PFC CSKA Sofia II won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fratria | 45% | 2.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
| 2PFC CSKA Sofia II | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fratria. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.66 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.2%
- 0–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fratria −0.5| Fratria line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.