Hebar
Fratria
The model leans Fratria at 53%. Expected goals: Hebar 1.10, Fratria 2.09. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%. Hebar won 2 of their last 6; Fratria won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hebar | 18% | 5.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.45 | – | – | – |
| 2Fratria | 59% | 1.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fratria. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 2.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–29.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–36.9%
- 0–36.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fratria −1| Hebar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 12% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 21% | 60% |
| +0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| +1 | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| +1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.