Hebar
Vihren Sandanski
The model leans Vihren Sandanski at 51%. Expected goals: Hebar 1.13, Vihren Sandanski 2.06. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%. Hebar won 2 of their last 6; Vihren Sandanski won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hebar | 19% | 5.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Vihren Sandanski | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vihren Sandanski. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 2.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–28.7%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–36.8%
- 0–36.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vihren Sandanski −1| Hebar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 13% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 21% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.