Ludogorets Razgrad II
Vihren Sandanski
The model leans Vihren Sandanski at 44%. Expected goals: Ludogorets Razgrad II 1.19, Vihren Sandanski 1.69. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Ludogorets Razgrad II won 1 of their last 6; Vihren Sandanski won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ludogorets Razgrad II | 26% | 3.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Vihren Sandanski | 48% | 2.09 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vihren Sandanski. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–28.0%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vihren Sandanski −0.5| Ludogorets Razgrad II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.