Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Etar
The model leans Etar at 44%. Expected goals: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1.25, Etar 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa won 3 of their last 6; Etar won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 27% | 3.76 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.86 | – | – | – |
| 2Etar | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Etar. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Etar −0.5| Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 16% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 24% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 22% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.