Celta Vigo
Athletic Club
The model leans Celta Vigo at 50%. Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.65, Athletic Club 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Celta Vigo won 2 of their last 5; Athletic Club won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celta Vigo | 52% | 1.93 | 2.88 | 33% | +19 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.73 | 3.10 | 31% | −4 |
| 2Athletic Club | 21% | 4.66 | 2.63 | 36% | −15 |
Pick: Celta Vigo. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.8%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.1%
- 0–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Celta Vigo −0.5| Celta Vigo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 24% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.