Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
The model leans Real Madrid at 61%. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.58, Real Sociedad 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%. Real Madrid won 3 of their last 4; Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Madrid | 69% | 1.45 | 1.18 | 80% | −11 |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.55 | 7.50 | 13% | +5 |
| 2Real Sociedad | 13% | 7.62 | 13.00 | 7% | +6 |
Pick: Real Madrid. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.58 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.5%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.3%
- 1–17.2%
- 1–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Madrid −1.5| Real Madrid line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 21% | 30% |
| -0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| 0 | 70% | 17% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.