Norwich City
Birmingham City
The model leans Norwich City at 39%. Expected goals: Norwich City 1.33, Birmingham City 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Norwich City won 4 of their last 6; Birmingham City won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Norwich City | 42% | 2.39 | 1.91 | 49% | −7 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | 3.50 | 27% | +3 |
| 2Birmingham City | 28% | 3.56 | 3.75 | 25% | +3 |
Pick: Norwich City. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 8,453 matches, fitted Sep 7. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.33 – 1.05 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–112.9%15.4%
- 1–012.4%7.7%
- 0–19.7%–
- 0–09.3%8.3%
- 2–18.6%7.7%
- 2–08.2%10.5%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Norwich City 0| Norwich City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 27% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Norwich City -0.5 | 43% | 2.32 | 1.95 | 49% | −6 |
| Asian handicap | Birmingham City +0.5 | 57% | 1.76 | 1.90 | 51% | +6 |
| Draw no bet | Norwich City | 60% | 1.67 | 1.40 | 66% | −6 |
| Draw no bet | Birmingham City | 40% | 2.49 | 2.75 | 34% | +6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 | 1.67 | 56% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 52% | 1.91 | 2.10 | 44% | +8 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.