Burnley
Bristol City
The model leans Burnley at 50%. Expected goals: Burnley 1.74, Bristol City 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Burnley won 0 of their last 6; Bristol City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burnley | 54% | 1.84 | 1.86 | 50% | +4 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.87 | 3.60 | 26% | 0 |
| 2Bristol City | 20% | 5.06 | 3.90 | 24% | −4 |
Pick: Burnley. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.74 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–011.6%8.3%
- 1–111.2%15.4%
- 2–010.1%10.5%
- 2–19.8%7.7%
- 0–06.7%9.1%
- 0–16.5%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Burnley −0.5| Burnley line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 24% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Burnley -0.5 | 56% | 1.80 | 1.93 | 50% | +6 |
| Asian handicap | Bristol City +0.5 | 44% | 2.25 | 1.93 | 50% | −6 |
| Draw no bet | Burnley | 73% | 1.36 | 1.40 | 66% | +7 |
| Draw no bet | Bristol City | 27% | 3.75 | 2.75 | 34% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 | 1.73 | 54% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 49% | 2.05 | 2.00 | 46% | +2 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.