Hull City
Aston Villa
The model leans Aston Villa at 61%. Expected goals: Hull City 0.86, Aston Villa 2.36. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 53%. Hull City won 2 of their last 6; Aston Villa won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hull City | 11% | 8.94 | 4.10 | 23% | −12 |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.29 | 3.50 | 27% | −8 |
| 2Aston Villa | 70% | 1.43 | 1.90 | 50% | +20 |
Pick: Aston Villa. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.86 – 2.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 0–211.1%–
- 1–29.6%–
- 0–19.4%–
- 0–38.7%–
- 1–18.1%14.3%
- 1–37.5%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aston Villa −1.5| Hull City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 8% | 88% |
| -0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| 0 | 12% | 17% | 71% |
| +0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| +1 | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| +1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Hull City +0.5 | 29% | 3.41 | 1.95 | 49% | −20 |
| Asian handicap | Aston Villa -0.5 | 71% | 1.41 | 1.90 | 51% | +20 |
| Draw no bet | Hull City | 14% | 7.25 | 3.00 | 31% | −17 |
| Draw no bet | Aston Villa | 86% | 1.16 | 1.36 | 69% | +17 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 | 1.75 | 53% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 48% | 2.10 | 2.00 | 47% | +1 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.