Everton
Manchester United
The model leans Manchester United at 42%. Expected goals: Everton 1.23, Manchester United 1.62. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Everton won 3 of their last 6; Manchester United won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Everton | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Manchester United | 45% | 2.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Manchester United. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 1.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester United −0.5| Everton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 17% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.