Arsenal
Coventry City
The model leans Arsenal at 67%. Expected goals: Arsenal 2.30, Coventry City 0.56. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 61%. Arsenal won 2 of their last 5; Coventry City won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | 76% | 1.31 | 1.20 | 79% | −3 |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.78 | 7.00 | 14% | +4 |
| 2Coventry City | 7% | 15.06 | 12.00 | 8% | −1 |
Pick: Arsenal. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.30 – 0.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 2–015.1%
- 1–013.1%
- 3–011.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–17.4%
- 4–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arsenal −1.5| Arsenal line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| -1 | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.