ADO Den Haag
Fortuna Sittard
The model leans ADO Den Haag at 53%. Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 2.32, Fortuna Sittard 1.23. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 65%. ADO Den Haag won 1 of their last 5; Fortuna Sittard won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ADO Den Haag | 61% | 1.64 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.81 | – | – | – |
| 2Fortuna Sittard | 18% | 5.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: ADO Den Haag. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.32 – 1.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–06.7%
- 3–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: ADO Den Haag −1| ADO Den Haag line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 22% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.