Willem II
Excelsior
The model leans Willem II at 40%. Expected goals: Willem II 1.43, Excelsior 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Willem II won 1 of their last 5; Excelsior won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Willem II | 43% | 2.30 | 3.00 | 32% | +12 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | 3.50 | 27% | +2 |
| 2Excelsior | 28% | 3.60 | 2.30 | 41% | −14 |
Pick: Willem II. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 1.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–112.5%14.3%
- 1–011.4%7.7%
- 2–19.0%9.1%
- 0–18.7%9.1%
- 2–08.1%–
- 0–07.9%6.7%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Willem II −0.5| Willem II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Willem II +0.25 | 67% | 1.50 | 1.80 | 53% | +14 |
| Asian handicap | Excelsior -0.25 | 33% | 2.99 | 2.00 | 47% | −14 |
| Draw no bet | Willem II | 61% | 1.64 | 2.10 | 44% | +17 |
| Draw no bet | Excelsior | 39% | 2.56 | 1.67 | 56% | −17 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 | 1.53 | 61% | −10 |
| Both teams to score | No | 49% | 2.03 | 2.38 | 39% | +10 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.