PEC Zwolle
NEC Nijmegen
The model leans NEC Nijmegen at 53%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.52, NEC Nijmegen 2.66. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 73%. PEC Zwolle won 0 of their last 3; NEC Nijmegen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PEC Zwolle | 20% | 5.02 | 3.50 | 27% | −7 |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.30 | 4.10 | 23% | −4 |
| 2NEC Nijmegen | 61% | 1.63 | 1.91 | 50% | +12 |
Pick: NEC Nijmegen. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.52 – 2.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.2%
- 1–37.3%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–35.6%
- 0–25.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: NEC Nijmegen −1| PEC Zwolle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 12% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 18% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 20% | 42% |
| +1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.