FC Twente
Telstar
The model leans FC Twente at 54%. Expected goals: FC Twente 2.09, Telstar 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%. FC Twente won 3 of their last 6; Telstar won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Twente | 62% | 1.60 | 1.25 | 76% | −13 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.52 | 6.00 | 16% | +6 |
| 2Telstar | 15% | 6.47 | 11.00 | 9% | +7 |
Pick: FC Twente. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 8,453 matches, fitted Sep 7. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.09 – 0.96 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 2–010.3%11.1%
- 2–19.9%10.0%
- 1–09.9%7.7%
- 1–19.5%8.3%
- 3–07.2%10.5%
- 3–16.9%10.0%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Twente −1| FC Twente line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 24% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 20% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | FC Twente -2 | 25% | 3.97 | 2.00 | 47% | −22 |
| Asian handicap | Telstar +2 | 75% | 1.34 | 1.80 | 53% | +22 |
| Draw no bet | FC Twente | 80% | 1.25 | 1.07 | 89% | −9 |
| Draw no bet | Telstar | 20% | 5.04 | 9.00 | 11% | +9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 | 1.62 | 58% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 46% | 2.18 | 2.20 | 42% | +3 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.